Chinese General Liu Yazhou: Diaoyu Islands and Sino-Japanese relations

BEIJING, October 14 (ChinaMil) — The Sino-Japanese relationship is a neighborhood issue and a relationship between major powers around the world as well. It is a strategic miscalculation that the Diaoyu Islands issue is the focus of the current Sino-Japanese relations. It is also a strategic miscalculation that non-priority problem does not affect the process of national security and the reform and opening up of China.

      The trend

The Diaoyu Islands issue and problems in Sino-Japanese relations shall be viewed in the wider scope of international situation.

First, to some extent, the whole world, especially the U.S.-led Western countries, is curbing China’s rise. They are not adaptable and tolerant and they even refuse to accept China’s rapid rise.

Since the 21st century, the U.S. has treated China as the main challenger to its global hegemony. Japan has always self-proclaimed that it is the “leader of Asia”. But its GDP is now lower than China’s. This change makes Japan very frustrated and irritated. Therefore, Japan changed the unassuming routine on international issues and began to challenge China.

Second, all the international issues faced by China have something to do with the U.S. According to law of the jungle, “the most powerful man” will not allow “the second most powerful man” to live well, because “the second” might replace “the first” at any moment.

Americans are very strategic and they chose Japan after the World War II. Since the founding of new China, Americans have been swinging around us.

Recently, the relationship between China and Japan is at a historical low point, which, of course, is caused by Japan. The Sino-ASEAN relationship is becoming intense because of the South China Sea disputes and the U.S.’s effort to disintegrate the ASEAN. Sino-U.S. relationship is becoming increasingly strategic and confrontational.

Third, the Sino-Japanese opposition is not only because of historic grudges. For states, nations and political powers, today’s disputes in the world are all about the right to survival. We compete with the U.S. for this right. We also compete with Japan for this right.

But Japan’s demands and pattern are smaller than that of the U.S. From this perspective, the confrontation and crisis between China and Japan are inevitable. If it is not in the Diaoyu Islands, it will happen in other areas as well.

 Fourth, the two thousand years of Sino-Japanese exchange is basically a “strong and weak” type of relationship. From ancient to modern times, Japan was weak and China was strong. It is Japan who always learned from China. After the Meiji Restoration in 1868, Japan became strong and China was weak. Japan invaded China.

With the rise of China, the relationship between China and Japan will transfer to the “strong and strong” type. But the two countries are not ready to adapt to this new relationship. Over the past two decades, Japan experienced decline while China enjoyed rapid development. The anxiety and insecurity over China’s rise in Japanese society became the soil of Japanese right wing’s “China Threat” theory. This indicates inevitable twists and turns in the Sino-Japanese relations, and of course, it means adjustment and transit.

Fifth, Japan’s attitude and moves towards China are the result of its national interests and also its ideological demands. Japan launched an attack to China over the Diaoyu Islands because Japan wants to compete against China for the dominance in Northeast Asia and in the Pacific.

Meanwhile, we cannot rule out Japan’s political design to promote changes in China with the use of external pressure. In 1986, a professor at the University of Tokyo in Japan gave Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary a piece of suggestion that China’s rise cannot be stopped, but there is a way to temporarily curb it and the way is to disintegrate China.

 Sixth, Sino-Japanese friendship during the Cold War is a requirement to confront the Soviet Union. The Sino-Japanese friendship after the Cold War is a requirement to weaken the U.S.-Japan alliance and contain the U.S. The U.S. played an important role in the two historical phases.

China and Japan are neighbors and this will never change. The U.S. and China are great powers in the world, it can never be changed, too. The only thing that is subjected to change is the relationship.

Currently, the U.S., out of history and its own interests, wants a conflict between Japan and China. However, the U.S. does not allow Japan to win, not to mention a victory.

The U.S.-Japanese relationship is more complicated. For Japan, the U.S. is both a rival and a “benefactor”. The U.S. is both an effective defender but also the biggest obstacle on Japan’s way of becoming a world power. The U.S. makes use of Japan and Japan does the same, too.

In history, the U.S. caused the greatest harm to Japan and vice versa. Meanwhile, the U.S. controls Japan’s re-militarization pace, which determines the level of Japan’s toughness on China. Japan’s national strategy is strongly influenced by the U.S. and Japan has a strong tendency to get rid of this effect.

For Japan, it is difficult to beat China alone but the U.S.-Japan alliance might be capable. The rise of China means China is seeking a breakthrough. Japan’s picking on China means Japan is also seeking a breakthrough as Japan wants to become a “normal country”. However, China and Japan’s breakthroughs are restricted by the U.S. The original strategic balance between China, Japan and America was broken by the rapid rise of China.

  Know about Japan

Jiang Menglin, President of Peking University, visit Japan in 1931. When Jiang was back, he said that in the past sixty years, the Chinese people’s understanding of Japanese was “anti-Japan”, “learn from Japan”, “pro-Japan” and “hate Japan”. But “know about Japan” is always lacking. In fact, we do not know about Japan even today.

First, one should remain sober and sane when he is angry. The more dangerous the opponent is, the more we need to study it and learn from it. If we cannot thoroughly understand the opponent, we cannot beat the opponent. On the contrary, the opponent will laugh at us.

China’s research on Japan is far from enough while Japan has been closely following China from the very beginning. The only difference is: in the past, Japan was anxious at the influence of China’s decline on Japan. Now, Japan is facing China’s prosperity.

Based on this, I think that it is a strategic miscalculation that the Diaoyu Islands issue is the focus of the current Sino-Japanese relations. It is also a strategic miscalculation that non-priority problem does not affect the process of national security and the reform and opening up of China.

Second, Japan won the Yellow Sea battle during the First Sino-Japanese War. In January 1895, the Japanese cabinet decided to establish the sign of sovereignty on the Diaoyu Islands which was still owned by the Qing Dynasty. This planted the seeds of the Diaoyu Islands dispute.

When the Diaoyu Islands dispute occurred again, the central government of China took the correct response and broke Japan’s unilateral control of Diaoyu Islands. There is a view that after Abe took office, Japan has been tightening the screws over the Diaoyu Islands issues, forcing China to make a tough response after each of Japan’s move. This is just Abe’s trap. The tougher China is, the happier the Abe government will be.

Some people think that China is overacting on some issues and upgraded tactical level issues to strategic level issues. In fact, by overacting, China regained the initiative in Diaoyu Islands. Now, it is impossible for Diaoyu Islands to return to the status of 1980s when Japan exerted unilateral control.

In modern times, Japan has twice interrupted the process of China’s development. But that was because China was too weak. Now the balance of power between China and Japan has undergone fundamental changes. China can effectively counter the Japanese attempt to interfere with China’s third development process. If China’s development process is once again interrupted, this will be China’s humiliation and Japan’s biggest success.

Third, Japan is an island country. In reply to an American scholar’s question, a Japanese scholar said: “Japan and the U.S. are different. U.S. is based on the wilderness while Japan is built on an archipelago.”

The geographical characters of Japan shape the Japanese national character. In general, the “island root” means ambitious, mean, paranoid and persistent. History has proved that island country will usually become a family feud with neighboring countries who share similar geographical features.

For example, Britain and France, Japan and North Korea. When we deal with the Japanese, we must pay attention to their islander mentality. Even if China wants to repair the Sino-Japanese relations, Japan might not really have such a desire.

Fourth, Japan has been keen to transfer from a “defeated country” to a “normal country.” Nearly seventy years have passed since the World War II. But Japan’s dream has not yet been achieved. This is the dream of the whole nation of Japan. People can postpone it, but could not stop it.

China cannot change this, therefore we should have adequate psychological preparation and response measures. In today’s Japan, the force of peace and right-wing force coexist. Japan’s future direction depends largely on the struggle between the two forces and the influence from the international community.

At this moment, the Japanese right-wing chose a wrong path, which is, too dependent on the U.S. Unfortunately, Japan’s choice is utilized and guided by the U.S. As a result, Japan is getting away from the “normal country”. The Japanese right-wing is actually pseudo right-wing.

In Eastern countries, the left-wing is usually nationalist while in Western countries, the right-wing is nationalist. Nationalists have a very good national pride. The Japanese right-wing, on the contrary, has no national pride. They want to throw themselves into the arms of the U.S., without any sense of shame.

Fifth, 1954 is also a Jiawu Year. That is a year worth attention. In that year, the Japanese Self-Defense Force was established and became an armed force. In September that year, the Democratic Party of Japan was established (not today’s Democratic Party of Japan. It is the predecessor of the right-wing “Liberal Democratic Party”). Three days later, Shinzo Abe was born.

Abe said: “My animal of the Chinese Zodiac is a horse. I am like a strong horse that can easily across obstacles. I will not back down, I do not fear and I can overcome any difficulties.” According to foreign media reports, after Abe stepped down in 2007, he felt a lack of preparation and a lack of political experience.

For this, Abe participated in a number of political and economic training courses at his own expense. His aim is very clear. Abe is prepared for constitutional amendment. He wants to make the Japanese Self-Defense Force an army in order to achieve the goal set by around ninety postwar Japanese prime ministers and thus become the greatest postwar Japanese prime minister. Based on his words and deeds, I think he has an even more ambitious goal: to restore the spirit of the Japanese nation.

After World War II, China was a broken country, but was reborn in the fire; Japan’s spirit was devastated and the spiritual integrity of the entire nation has not been recovered. Under Abe’s induction, a strange phenomenon occurred in the current Japanese political circle: political factions are in a competition to see who has the toughest stance against China. Japan’s political right deviation is moving to a new stage of the extreme right. This is part of the spiritual scope and therefore requires special attention from China.

Sixth, it is still too early to predict the length of the Abe regime. Abe’s domestic and foreign policies are risky but the ruling status is still relatively stable. It is different from the past “seven Prime Ministers in eight years”. Abe dishonesty cannot simply be attributed to his personal qualities, it is a national problem in Japan.

Abe visited the Yasukuni Shrine, with the support of 70 percent of the Japanese people; the Japanese government provoked the Diaoyu Islands dispute while 80 percent of the Japanese people believe that it is China’s fault. Abe is a right-wing elite among Japan’s post-1950s, and his ideological represents a generation.

Conflict or even war

China and Japan refer to history in diplomatic disputes and make historical stories serve the present reality. If the vicious circle continues, would a conflict or even a war between the two countries be possible?

First, Shintaro Ishihara made the acquisition of the Diaoyu Islands for his personal political purpose and the Japanese government has thus been “kidnapped.” After Abe took office, he skillfully exploited this farce and further escalated this farce.

However, according to the fragmented, flawed and inconsistent response measures from the Japanese government since that farce, we can see that Japan is not deliberately premeditating all these moves. Though Japan moves frequently, actually it is clueless. It is certain that the Japanese government is not yet ready for a war against China over the Diaoyu Islands.

 Second, the war is not the primary goal but a politic means it can rely on for the Abe regime. For Abe, the best scenario is that by creating a war atmosphere, he can get his desired benefits.

To maintain the current momentum has at least three benefits for Japan: first, a considerable part of the domestic manufacturing industry can be engaged in arms production which can stimulate the domestic economy; second, Japan can work with ASEAN and India to counter China’s military pressure. This can help those countries forget their historical memories of Japan’s aggression; third, Japan has the chip to bargain with the U.S. And if war happens, there’s not much for Japan to lose – Peace Constitution will fail and Abe and other Japanese nationalists will realize their dreams.

Third, maritime disputes occur between China and Japan. But China and the U.S. determine whether to wage a war or not. Under the circumstance that the U.S. has not fully opened the cage and loosened the reins of Japan, what can Japan do is not to launch a large-scale war, but to make small and ongoing conflicts and gradually improve its own military system to break the U.S. restrictions step by step. In the meantime, Japan will creep patiently but firmly like a lion. Once there’s an opportunity, Japan will jump and snap the throat of the prey.

Fourth, in the future, there might be two kinds of conflicts over the Diaoyu Islands and the South China Sea. One is “sporadic conflict” and the other is premeditated conflict. In particular, we should guard against the latter.

Japanese are pugnacious and they have an adventurous military nature. Japan is most adept at engaging a surprise attack. In history, Japan took the initiative through surprise attack in three decisive full-scale wars against China, Russia and the U.S. respectively. This is determined by its culture.

The conflict will take the form of “cold weapons”, which is, ship to ship collision. It belongs to the category of psychological warfare in which Japan is the expert. Our predecessors had brilliantly summarized that small-scale war is determined by tactical weapons, medium-scale war is determined by national strength and large-scale war is determined by strategic thinking. The conflict between China and Japan over the Diaoyu Islands is likely to be a small-scale war and that is mainly determined by tactical weapons.

Fifth, the Diaoyu Islands conflict requires the navy and the air force. Western media said that Japan’s naval power surpassed Russia and became the world’s second, only next to the U.S. Although it is called Self-Defense Force, in fact, it is a standard modern navy who only lacks aircraft carriers. The Japanese Navy claimed that once the war breaks out, it can “clear” the East China Sea Fleet of the Navy of the People Liberation Army (PLA) within four hours. It is not a joke.

Since 1981, the U.S. and Japan began to develop a secret military program called “chains” targeting the Chinese Navy and rehearsed many times. Japanese warships are equipped with satellite positioning system known as “desert” which can indicate the positions of Chinese naval vessels. This system can operate on its own for more than 50 years.

The flying rate of fighters of the Japanese air force has remained at 90 percent, higher than 80 percent of the U.S. air force. It is said that Japan may introduce F-22 aircrafts. The U.S. military said F-22 can bomb anywhere in the world within two hours. After takeoff, the F-22 will fly directly in the stratosphere. At this height, even a brick can devastate a building due to the acceleration generated by gravity.

 Sixth, the continuous conflict between China and Japan will to lead the two countries march farther away from peace, but closer to war. Once China and Japan are in a military conflict, the only choice left for China is victory.

For Japan, there are three possibilities: win with great benefits, lose with little loss of benefit and make peace to gain partial benefit. For the U.S., there are more choices. Japan is not afraid of failure but China cannot afford to lose. Otherwise, China’s domestic issues will become international ones and vice versa.

Seventh, the year 2014 is a Jiawu Year. The glorious memories and desire of the First Sino-Japanese War stimulated the Japanese militarism. Some Japanese people have claimed to start the “Second Sino-Japanese War”. Abe also claimed for a “third open up”.

There was also a rising nationalist sentiment in China. Chinese and Japanese national sentiments are in a contest. Japanese leaders were held hostage by Japanese people’s national sentiment.

In the Diaoyu Islands, China will not take the initiative to attack first but China will also prevent the attack from Japan. Chairman Mao Zedong said that we do not fight the battle without preparation and we do not fight the battle without 100 percent of certainty. Soldiers are trained for wars. Fear of war is not a soldier’s duty and a real preparation is required for a real war.

Eighth, we must do everything possible to avoid war even at the cost of a war. As a soldier, we must use the “determination to fight” to achieve peace. Either we defend peace through war, or we defend peace through peace.

The supreme military excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting. This can be achieved only when we are fully prepared to fight, we can fight and we are able to win. We shall strive for the best results and prepare for the worst case.

Our ancestors once said: “the gentleman devotes himself to the roots. When the roots are well planted, the Way will grow.” Here, the “roots” means its own strength. History proves that the most reliable ally is always oneself.

 Breakthrough

Cai E once said: “China must overtake Japan if it wants to become a strong country.” The fight between China and Japan is a strategic competition and the key to victory depends not only on the strength of hard power, it also depends on soft power.

The country who has better strategic guidance, who has more stable development on the road to achieve national goals and who makes fewer mistakes in strategic judgment and strategic guidance will prevail. In this sense, the Sino-Japanese confrontation is a contest of the comprehensive national strength.

First, since the Qing Dynasty, the Chinese people have always envied the Western powers, plus a little bit low self-esteem. Sun Yat-sen has changed this mentality and China became firm and confident in its foreign relations.

Chiang Kai-shek’s attitude towards Japan is generally healthy. He had studied in Japan and thus understood Japan. He did not deny Japan’s strength, nor was he afraid of it. At first, he was determined not to resist Japanese invasion, then, he was also resolute enough to resist.

After the victory of Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression, Chiang said he would not view Japan as an enemy and he did not seek revenge or reparations from Japan. Until now, Japanese are grateful to him, saying he “requited evil with good”. In fact, this shows a confident Chiang Kai-shek.

Later, Mao Zedong was more confident than Chiang Kai-shek. Mao wrote off Japan’s reparations. The most confident leader is Deng Xiaoping. On October 22, 1978, Deng Xiaoping visited Japan and the two countries exchanged “China-Japan Peace and Friendship Agreement.”

However, five days ago, the Yasukuni Shrine received 14 tablets of Class A war criminals. On October 18, the then Japanese Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda visited the Yasukuni Shrine. Deng did not care about this.

Deng’s ignorance let the Japanese know that they will never become Deng Xiaoping’s opponent. Since 1979, Japan began to give loans to China. As of the end of 2010, the cumulative lending to China reached 2.7884 trillion yen. This has contributed a lot to China’s reform and opening up.

Today, the Chinese and Japanese leaders were born after the Second World War and are all post-50s. Our leader is better than the Japanese leader in terms of knowledge, feelings, experience, and endurance. The game between new generation leaders of China and Japan is full of historical responsibilities. It is not only a game between the leaders, but it is actually a game between countries.

Second, Washington once said: “A nation is psychologically a slave if it hates or worships a nation for a long time.” The focus on whether the aggressor has apologized or not is a sign of psychological weakness. The U.S. does better in this.

Hawaii, a city bombed by Japan, has too many humiliating memories. But today’s Hawaii is a friendly city to all countries, including Japan. Yesterday’s hatred has become today’s harmony. The U.S., as a victor, has a natural psychological advantage over Japan. Americans believe that history cannot be forgotten but can be forgiven.

The postwar Japan is indeed shameless in the treatment of its war of aggression. Japan does not offer sincere apology to China. Instead, it claims that it is “the only country in the world that has suffered from atomic bombings”, in an effort to counterclaim the U.S. This is a typical mentality of a defeated country.

Chine must awake and become mentally stronger. Our self-confidence and strength are the final weapon for our victory. Simply by overtaking Japan in terms of economic strength is not enough to build China’s confidence over Japan. Sincere apology never comes from begging.

The historic kneeling of German Chancellor Willy Brandt is spontaneous, which shows his sincerity and true value of repentance and confession. If Chinese people can treat the historic “burden” to a “mirror” and face the future, China can really go beyond history.

Third, the power of leader is particularly large in dealing with countries like Japan. In the early 1970s when China and Japan began to communicate, the communications were limited to leaders of the two countries such as Kakuei Tanaka, Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai.

From Kakuei Tanaka, the Sino-Japanese relations largely relied on the relationship between individual leaders. Zhou Enlai, Guo Moruo and Liao Chengzhi played a huge role in this process. This is consistent with the Oriental tradition and the interests of both countries.

South Korea strongly criticizes Japanese leaders’ visits to the Yasukuni Shrine and this criticism from South Korea is stronger than China’s. However, high-level exchanges between Korea and Japan have never been interrupted. Japan and South Korea have been quarreling over the Dokdo Islands, but there is no sign of armed conflict.

 Fourth, Sino-U.S. relation is ever more important when the Sino-Japanese relations grow intense. It is the U.S. that determines the escalation of tensions in the Diaoyu Islands. The U.S. and Japan formed an equal alliance but the essence is that Japan serves the U.S. It is the U.S. that manipulates and decides Sino-Japanese relations.

From the U.S. perspective, the next war is the best without the participation of the U.S. The U.S. will work as a war agent who provides arms to consume the strength of its potential rivals. Who would these two countries be?

Some say that China and Japan while others say China and India. From the opposite perspective, it is question of who is China’s imaginary enemy. Currently, if we cannot effectively improve or partly improve our relations with the U.S., we will not get to the root of the Abe and Japanese right-wing forces. We should be aware of every of our forces that that could affect the U.S.

Fifth, on one hand, we have to see that Japan has a large right-wing force. On the other hand, there is a strong opposition to the resurrection of Japan’s militarism. The key factor that can prevent Japan’s constitutional change is in Japan.

The resurgence of Japanese militarism must pass its domestic public opinion and this is a difficult threshold. From some of the performances against right-wing forces in Japan, we can feel and touch this strength.

Since the beginning of 1978 when 14 tablets of Class A war criminals were enshrined, the Japanese emperor never visited the shrine. After the war, many of Japan’s prime ministers visited the Yasukuni Shrine but many didn’t.

Sixth, due to historical and geographical reasons, Taiwan pays special attention to the sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands. The earliest “Protect Diaoyu Islands Campaign” was originated in Taiwan.

Moreover, 90 percent of Japan’s import and export of energy products must pass through the Taiwan Strait. If a mutual interconnection mechanism over the Diaoyu Islands is established between the mainland and Taiwan to jointly counter Japan, Japan will get hit hard from beginning to end.

Besides, South Korea is a rising middle-power who has common interests with China in the resistance against Japan. On relations with Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are all potential allies to us.

Source: PLA

By

Robert Williams